Union Loses Ground in Forsa Poll, FDP Returns to 5 Percent

According to Nius, new polling data from Forsa shows the AfD holding steady at 27 percent support, while the Union has dropped another percentage point to just 21 percent. The decline marks the CDU/CSU’s weakest performance since late 2021, raising serious questions about the governing coalition’s electoral prospects.

The survey, conducted for RTL and n-tv between May 26 and June 1, 2026, polled 2,502 respondents by telephone with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

The Social Democrats remain mired at 12 percent, unchanged from the previous week, while the Greens hold at 15 percent. The Left party maintains its position at 11 percent, continuing to outpace the governing SPD in voter preference.

The only party showing upward momentum is the Free Democratic Party, which gained one percentage point to reach 5 percent. This puts the FDP precisely at the threshold needed to enter the Bundestag under Germany’s electoral system, though such a narrow margin leaves the liberals in a precarious position.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance remains stuck at 3 percent, well below the five-percent hurdle required for parliamentary representation. Other minor parties collectively account for 6 percent of voter support.

The polling data reflects a continued erosion of support for Germany’s traditional center-right as the AfD consolidates its position as the country’s most popular party. The Union’s slide comes despite recent efforts by party leadership to address voter concerns on immigration and economic policy.

With the next federal election still on the horizon, the current numbers suggest a potentially transformative shift in German politics, as establishment parties struggle to recapture voter confidence amid ongoing concerns about migration, economic performance, and national security.

With information from Nius