The Corleone Problem
President Trump faces a “Corleone dilemma” in ending the Iran war—seeking a victorious peace that upholds U.S. credibility while preparing for possible ground operations amid rising tensions.
A particularly distinctive issue in the current developments regarding the war in Iran is the problem faced by President Trump concerning how to bring the entire military operation to an end. This is referred to in Washington as the “Corleone problem.” It is the dilemma of the boss, of Don according to Mario Puzo’s The Godfather, to end the war with a peace that appears to be “granted” rather than “struggled to secure.” In other words, choosing policies that conclude a conflict because they serve certain personal principles, not out of fear of losing prestige. The Americans experienced this before with Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
If the US withdraws while Iranian missiles continue to be launched, the message to Washington’s rivals – especially Beijing – is clear. Challenges pay off and bring gains. For the US, the end of the war necessarily has to look like a success, if not a triumph. De-escalation should be the first step, at least with regard to the current form of the war. That means destructive bombings aimed primarily at breaking morale. Gradually departing from Israel’s tactics, which focus on deeper strikes and a more permanent confrontation.
For this reason, beyond the rumored negotiations, if they do not swiftly bear fruit, the Americans may choose a ground military operation to secure tangible and immediate results. Possibly within the next 24 hours. It is no coincidence that the so-called “pizza watch channel”—now famous in Washington around the Pentagon—has recently been very active. There, they monitor which nights large quantities of fast food are ordered at the Pentagon, indicating the engagement of extra personnel on weekend nights. This means high-intensity operations requiring meticulous surveillance. This implies that ground actions in Iran are either being prepared or are underway…
Consequently, the strategic sequencing for the US exit from the conflict is in preparation. Whether it will be carried out and succeed or lead to further involvement, no one can predict.
(Andreas Andrianopoulos’s book, The War in Iran: Europe’s Tragic Failures, Epikentro, 2026, is already available in bookstores).
