Lebanon Still Holds: Benjamin Blanchard Decodes Fractures After 100 Days of War

According to Valeurs Actuelles, Benjamin Blanchard, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, expressed skepticism about the viability of the announced ceasefire. While he believes peace may eventually come, he described immediate prospects as highly hypothetical.

Blanchard noted that the Trump administration has developed a pattern of announcing ceasefires on an almost weekly basis, though these declarations frequently lack substantive follow-through. When the principal parties themselves declare disinterest in an agreement, such announcements amount to little more than diplomatic theater.

Hezbollah Not Party to Agreement

A critical flaw in the ceasefire arrangement involves who actually negotiated the terms. The Lebanese government conducted the talks, but Hezbollah itself was not directly involved in the discussions. Although the movement maintains ministerial representation within the government, those ministers did not lead the negotiations.

Hezbollah consequently does not consider itself bound by commitments made by the Lebanese state, to which it does not genuinely answer. The organization operates as a state within a state, maintaining its own military apparatus independent of government control.

On the Israeli side, the situation proves equally contradictory. While government representatives signed the agreement, significant portions of the cabinet oppose any such accord, including the Interior Minister and the Minister of Internal Security. Netanyahu finds himself constrained by his coalition partners, effectively signing with one hand while undermining the agreement with the other.

Lebanese Population Divided

The Lebanese people remain divided over the conflict, though these divisions do not necessarily follow simple lines. Hezbollah drew Lebanon into war by bombarding Israel and refusing to disarm. However, Israel has methodically destroyed southern Lebanon under the pretext of fighting Hezbollah, including demolishing villages emptied of all inhabitants.

Some Lebanese citizens would accept almost any measure to expel Hezbollah, including Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory or even civil war. Others remain prepared to support Hezbollah in resisting Israel, though this faction has likely diminished as Hezbollah’s popularity has significantly weakened.

Government Powerless Against Hezbollah

The Lebanese government has adopted formal measures nominally hostile to Hezbollah, though these remain unenforceable. The organization represents one of the principal political forces within the Shiite community, itself a major component of Lebanese society.

Short of triggering civil war, the government cannot directly confront Hezbollah. This approach appears on no political faction’s agenda except perhaps Israel’s, and evidently not that of the United States either.

France Sidelined in Negotiations

Despite France’s historical claims to protecting Eastern Christians, the United States has effectively excluded Paris from substantive negotiations. France maintains a relatively balanced position on Lebanese matters, but its voice carries diminished weight given the current state of French power and influence.

Blanchard emphasized that the Lebanese situation should not be transposed to other contexts. Lebanon constitutes a single people, not a coexistence of multiple peoples. Despite different religions, Lebanese citizens share a common language, cuisine, and cultural practices.

Lebanese Model Not Applicable to France

Some French political figures have compared France to Lebanon writ large, but Blanchard rejected this analogy entirely. Lebanon represents one people who adopted different religions through historical circumstances. France’s current demographic situation bears no resemblance to this pattern.

Remarkably, after more than two and a half years of intermittent warfare, Lebanon continues to hold together, which Blanchard described as quite remarkable. How long this cohesion will last remains uncertain, but the country has thus far avoided the complete breakdown many predicted.

With information from Valeurs Actuelles