Is the nonsocialist Democratic establishment fooling itself?

As W. James Antle III argues in Washington Examiner, what initially appeared to be a turning tide in Michigan’s Senate Democratic primary has reversed course dramatically, with establishment-backed Representative Haley Stevens now trailing progressive challenger Abdul el Sayed by nearly double digits just days before Tuesday’s primary election.

The shift comes despite a full-court press from Democratic power brokers. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who defeated el Sayed in the 2018 gubernatorial primary, led Michigan Democratic officials in rallying behind Stevens. Former President Barack Obama remained neutral but was repeatedly invoked by the Stevens campaign to undermine her opponent.

Early polling had shown Stevens commanding support among black and working-class voters. But four consecutive surveys now show el Sayed ahead by double digits. The RealClearPolitics average puts him up by 9.4 points heading into the primary.

A Tavern Research poll released recently showed el Sayed leading by 10 points over Stevens. The same pollster had Stevens ahead by just 1 point earlier this month, prompting el Sayed to claim at the time that the survey appeared to be funded by AIPAC. Independent fact-checkers found no evidence linking that poll to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel lobbying group that has become a progressive target for its heavy spending in Democratic primaries. Now that the same pollster shows el Sayed ahead outside the margin of error, his campaign has eagerly promoted the results.

El Sayed has deployed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in television advertisements touting his support for Medicare-for-all. In the ad, a beaming Ocasio-Cortez tells viewers that el Sayed’s backing of government-run healthcare is why billionaires are spending millions to defeat him and his movement.

Socialists and far-left activists have flooded into Michigan. While el Sayed is not a member or endorsed candidate of the Democratic Socialists of America, other Michigan candidates are, and DSA organizers are not ignoring his Senate race. Detroit DSA co-Chairwoman Lila Brickner told Politico’s Playbook that activists are canvassing for el Sayed because he is fighting for the same policies as their endorsed candidates.

In a Zoom call with donors, el Sayed suggested that defeating the Democratic establishment would send a powerful message to party elites. You put one ogre on a pike, and then everyone else gets the message, he said. He later clarified during a debate that he was not referring to Stevens but to Senator John Fetterman, whom he accused of abandoning the progressive values on which he campaigned.

The pattern extends beyond Michigan. In Wisconsin, establishment attempts to block DSA-backed state Representative Francesca Hong from winning the Democratic gubernatorial nomination have backfired spectacularly. Hong’s lead has only expanded since Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley reentered the race, despite endorsements from incumbent Governor Tony Evers. Former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes dropped out Thursday, apparently concluding Hong could not be stopped.

Even in Maine, where socialist Graham Platner withdrew from the Senate race against Republican Senator Susan Collins, he was replaced by Troy Jackson, a candidate from the same ideological wing of the party.

Some of these candidates have attempted to soften their positioning. El Sayed denied being a socialist in an interview with former White House press secretary Jen Psaki on MS NOW. Hong has walked back support for defunding the police. Jackson has tried to distance himself from Platner.

Yet their continued competitiveness reflects a volatile mood among Democratic voters angry about repeated losses to President Donald Trump, frustrated with their party’s entrenched leadership, and willing to consider far more radical change than the Obama era or the first-term anti-Trump resistance ever contemplated.

The failures of former President Joe Biden, the defeats of Hillary Clinton and former Vice President Kamala Harris, and the inability of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to break through have left many Democrats with little patience for electability arguments or appeals for caution.

Tuesday’s primary results will reveal whether enough Democrats remain willing to resist this movement, or whether the party establishment has been fooling itself about its own influence all along.

With information from Washington Examiner