Spanish Socialists Plunge in Polls Amid Corruption Scandals
Spain's ruling Socialist Workers' Party has plunged to 25.4 percent support amid corruption scandals, its worst performance this term, while conservative opposition gains a projected absolute majority.
According to Brussels Signal, the PSOE has dropped to just 25.4 percent in voting intention, marking its worst performance of the current parliamentary term. The Target Point survey for El Debate, conducted May 27-28, 2026, shows a 2.2-point plunge in just two months.
The collapse translates to a loss of approximately 554,000 votes, assuming turnout mirrors the 66 percent recorded in 2023. Seat projections place the Socialists at between 103 and 105 seats in Spain’s 350-member Congress.
A second poll from GAD3 for ABC, published May 31, confirms the trend. It records PSOE support at 26.8 percent and 107 seats, reinforcing the party’s vulnerability amid multiple criminal investigations.
Conservative Coalition Poised for Absolute Majority
Both surveys project a clear right-wing majority pairing the conservative Partido Popular with Vox, eliminating the need for regional nationalist allies. The GAD3 poll awards the PP 141 seats and Vox 60, delivering a combined 201 seats—well above the 176 required for an absolute majority.
The numbers represent a significant recovery for Vox after months of stagnation and would hand PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo his strongest position since the July 2023 general election.
As Brussels Signal reports, direct voter migration from PSOE to PP accounts for 5.3 percent of 2023 Socialist voters, while the bulk of losses flow to abstention or undecided categories, with over 20 percent of former Socialist supporters abandoning the party.
Coalition Partners in Freefall
The PSOE’s decline is compounded by the continued collapse of its junior coalition partners. The left-wing Sumar alliance has fallen 1.6 points to 5.3 percent in the El Debate poll, projecting just five to six seats and representing a loss of approximately 378,000 votes. Podemos is relegated to two or three seats. The GAD3 survey similarly places Sumar at 5.9 percent with seven seats.
Pedro Sánchez maintains a personal approval rating of 3.49 out of 10, still the highest among party leaders according to El Debate, but reflecting widespread discontent with his leadership.
Corruption Investigations Close In
The polling follows a dramatic escalation in corruption probes targeting the Socialist party. On May 27, the Central Operational Unit of the Guardia Civil spent 12 hours searching PSOE’s Madrid headquarters on Calle Ferraz. Fresh investigations have also emerged linked to former prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the so-called “Leire Díez” case.
Public sentiment has soured dramatically, with 77 percent of Spaniards describing the current political situation as “bad” or “very bad,” according to GAD3.
The slump also follows the May 17, 2026 regional election in Andalusia, where the PP’s Juanma Moreno retained power and the PSOE posted one of its worst-ever results in a traditional stronghold, signaling a Socialist retreat across southern Spain.
Sánchez Rejects Early Elections
Despite mounting pressure, Sánchez has ruled out calling early elections before the natural end of the parliamentary term in 2027. Responding to the Ferraz headquarters search, he insisted the party had “nothing to hide” and would act when irregularities were confirmed.
The combined weight of corruption scandals, coalition partner collapse, and erosion of the Socialist base now places Spain’s government in its most precarious position since taking office, with conservative forces positioned to reclaim power with a commanding majority should elections be called.
With information from Brussels Signal
