Non-whites projected to become US majority by 2050
The U.S. white population is projected to fall below 50 percent by 2050 for the first time, with 16 states expected to reach that threshold by then, according to Census Bureau data.
The transformation will reshape not just the nation as a whole but up to 16 individual states within the same timeframe, including major population centers like New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.
Census Bureau projections show that America’s demographic composition has changed dramatically since 1980, when the country was 80 percent white. That figure is expected to plummet to 47 percent by 2050 and continue declining to 44 percent by 2060.
The driving forces behind this shift include international migration, internal population movements, and declining birthrates across different demographic groups, New York Post reports.
State-Level Changes Accelerating
The state-by-state breakdown reveals even more dramatic transformations underway.
As of the 2000 census, only three states had populations where whites comprised less than half: California at 46 percent, New Mexico at 45 percent, and Hawaii, which has never had a white majority.
By 2020, three more states crossed that threshold. Maryland’s white population fell to 47 percent, Nevada to 46 percent, and Texas to just 40 percent.
The projections show an additional ten states will see their white populations drop below 50 percent by 2050. New York will reach 46 percent white, while New Jersey falls to 37 percent and Connecticut to 45 percent. Delaware is forecast at 47 percent, Florida at 39 percent, and Georgia at 37 percent. Arizona will hit 43 percent, Illinois 49 percent, Oklahoma 49 percent, and Washington state 49 percent.
More States Following by 2060
The trend continues beyond mid-century. By 2060, a total of 24 states are expected to have white populations at or below 50 percent.
States joining this category in the final decade of the projection period include Alaska at 50 percent, Louisiana at 51 percent, Massachusetts at 46 percent, Minnesota at 51 percent, Mississippi at 51 percent, North Carolina at 49 percent, Rhode Island at 47 percent, and Virginia at 47 percent.
Regional Variations Persist
Not all states are experiencing rapid demographic change. West Virginia remains the least ethnically diverse state in the nation, with an 89 percent white population as of 2020. By 2050, that figure is projected to decline only slightly to 86 percent.
The most dramatic declines are concentrated in states that have already seen significant demographic shifts. California’s white population, already at 35 percent in 2020, is expected to fall to just 20 percent by 2060. Texas will drop from 40 percent to 23 percent over the same period. Nevada is forecast to decline from 46 percent in 2020 to 23 percent by 2060.
The Census Bureau data captures changes that have unfolded over four decades and projects them forward through 2060, painting a picture of an America that will look substantially different from the one that existed at the end of the Cold War.
With information from New York Post
