CDU/CSU Crashes to Lowest Poll Numbers Since 2021
Germany's center-right CDU/CSU has fallen to 21 percent in the latest Forsa poll, its lowest since 2021, while the AfD leads with 27 percent support.
According to Junge Freiheit, the sharp decline underscores how dramatically Germany’s political landscape has shifted since the union parties lost the federal election that year. At the time of that November 2021 poll, the Social Democrats stood at 25 percent in first place, while the AfD registered just nine percent. Current Chancellor Olaf Scholz was sworn in on December 8, 2021.
The AfD now dominates the field with 27 percent support, unchanged from the previous week but extending its lead over the CDU/CSU to six percentage points. The Alternative for Germany has tripled its support since late 2021, while the Social Democrats have collapsed to fourth place with barely half their former strength.
Traditional Volksparteien in Historic Decline
The combined support for Germany’s three traditional major parties—the CDU, CSU, and SPD—now stands at just 33 percent. At the last federal election, these parties together captured 44.9 percent of the vote, highlighting an unprecedented erosion of their electoral base.
Most other parties held steady compared to the previous week’s polling, with one notable exception. The FDP gained one percentage point, reaching five percent for the first time since February 2025. This marks the critical threshold required for representation in the Bundestag under Germany’s electoral system.
Kubicki Effect Lifts Liberals
Following the GMS polling institute, Forsa has become the second major pollster to show the Free Democrats clearing the five-percent hurdle since Wolfgang Kubicki was elected party chairman. The veteran liberal politician’s leadership appears to have provided a modest boost to his party’s fortunes after months languishing below the parliamentary threshold.
The polling data reflects growing dissatisfaction with establishment parties and continued momentum for the AfD, which maintains an unchallenged position at the top of voter preferences despite ongoing efforts by other parties to contain its rise.
With information from Junge Freiheit
