Bardella Projected to Win French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella of France's National Rally leads 2027 presidential polls with 32% first-round support, ahead of centrist Édouard Philippe at 17% and far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 16%.
A recent Odoxa-Mascaret opinion poll conducted for the Public Sénat broadcaster surveyed over a thousand French voters on the race to succeed Emmanuel Macron when his term expires in 2027. The findings project Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally party, as the clear frontrunner in both rounds of voting.
The polling data shows Bardella commanding a substantial first-round lead with 32 per cent support, nearly double that of his closest competitor, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, who trails at 17 per cent. Philippe, who serves as Mayor of Le Havre and heads the neo-liberal Horizons party, would also lose to Bardella in a projected second-round contest by a margin of 52 to 48 per cent.
Philippe has been positioned as the centrist candidate most capable of preserving Macron’s legacy of preventing both the populist right and socialist left from gaining power. However, his first-round support has dropped four points since March, placing his advancement to the second round in serious doubt.
Far-Left Leader Threatens Centrist Position
Far-left La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon is closing the gap with 16 per cent support, just one point behind Philippe. The France in Rebellion chief’s rising numbers put significant pressure on the centrist camp to consolidate around Philippe or risk shifting support to alternative establishment figures.
Potential replacement candidates include former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and current Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, both of whom announced support for immigration restrictions this week in apparent attempts to appeal to centre-right voters.
Philippe’s declining poll numbers coincide with an announcement earlier this month from France’s National Financial Authority that it has opened an investigation into the Horizons leader. The probe concerns alleged embezzlement of public funds, favouritism, and illegal conflict of interest related to a €2 million contract awarded by his Le Havre mayoral government to a charity operated by a political ally.
Bardella Dominates Potential Matchup with Far Left
While Mélenchon’s supporters celebrated his gains on Philippe, Rassemblement National headquarters likely views the far-left leader’s rise even more favourably. A previous Odoxa poll testing a direct Bardella-Mélenchon matchup showed the 30-year-old National Rally leader crushing the 74-year-old radical by an overwhelming 74 per cent to 26 per cent margin.
Uncertainty remains over whether Bardella will actually appear on the 2027 ballot, however. The rising political star serves as his party’s backup option behind his mentor, Marine Le Pen, who has run unsuccessfully for president three times.
Le Pen faces a potential ban from the 2027 race stemming from allegations that she and her party misused European Union funds for domestic political activities in France. A court last year ruled that the charges warranted a five-year prohibition from standing in any European election. Le Pen is currently appealing that decision, with a ruling expected this summer.
The strong performance of the party’s contingency candidate signals the shifting political landscape in France and potentially across Western Europe. A populist victory in Paris next year could foreshadow similar movements in Britain and Germany, as Breitbart News reports.
With information from Breitbart News
