Key Primary Races to Watch Three Months Before Midterms

According to Washington Examiner, Monday marks exactly three months until voters head to the polls, and several critical primaries remain unsettled. The bulk of the drama is concentrated on the Democratic side, as Republicans have largely resolved their major nomination battles.

The remaining primary calendar features a headline Democratic Senate race in Michigan, where Tuesday’s contest pits leftist Abdul el Sayed against Rep. Haley Stevens. Despite millions in outside funding backing Stevens, el Sayed appears to be the frontrunner.

On the Republican side, Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee faces former state agriculture commissioner Charlie Hatcher in what could be a competitive primary following redistricting. A poll commissioned by a Hatcher-aligned organization last week showed Ogles leading by just 4 points.

In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan will share the ballot with former Rep. Mary Peltola and a spoiler candidate also named Dan Sullivan. Under Alaska’s top-four primary system, all advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation, making the senator’s progression virtually certain barring catastrophe.

Socialist Surge Threatens Democratic Establishment

The upcoming primaries fall into three broad categories: contests featuring competitive general elections, races where veteran Democratic incumbents face potential defeat, and challenges where socialist candidates could topple the establishment.

Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary

The most consequential race is Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, where socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong appears to be pulling away from the field. The contest has consolidated in recent weeks, with Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes both suspending their campaigns to rally around Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who rejoined the race after Rodriguez withdrew.

Yet polling shows Hong maintaining a steady lead, potentially setting up a general election clash against Rep. Tom Tiffany, the presumptive Republican nominee. A Hong victory could carry devastating consequences for Democrats statewide.

Anthony Chergosky, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, warned that there is a real potential for down-ballot consequences, as Republicans will attempt to tie Democratic candidates to Hong’s ideological positions and controversial past statements.

The professor noted that the fallout could most severely impact state legislative races, where Democrats have been mounting a prolonged effort to regain unified control of state government. The Aug. 11 primary could not only return the governorship to Republican hands but jeopardize Democratic prospects across Wisconsin.

Missouri’s 1st District

Former Rep. Cori Bush is attempting a comeback against Rep. Wesley Bell in St. Louis, two years after Bell defeated her with substantial assistance from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and its allies. Bush, who faced ethics allegations involving claims she used campaign funds to hire her husband for security work, has centered her campaign on Bell’s AIPAC support, an issue that continues to divide the Democratic Party. AIPAC is again backing Bell in Tuesday’s primary.

Michigan’s 13th District

In Detroit, state Rep. Donavan McKinney threatens to unseat Rep. Shri Thanedar, who first won a fractured primary in 2022 by self-funding his campaign. Thanedar’s 2022 victory marked the first time in over 50 years that Detroit lacked black representation in Congress. He enters Tuesday’s primary as an underdog.

Both Bush and McKinney have secured endorsements from the Democratic Socialists of America, whose candidates have scored several notable victories this cycle.

Scott Rasmussen, a Republican pollster and president of RMG Research, said the socialist surge is not necessarily surprising. He explained that a small, well-organized and energized campaign poses a serious threat in any low-turnout primary election.

With information from Washington Examiner