Trump Must Exploit Beijing’s Weak Points to Deter Taiwan Invasion
Deterring Chinese invasion of Taiwan may require targeting vulnerabilities across Eurasia that could raise costs for Beijing, particularly alternative energy and trade routes China is building to bypass naval blockades.
According to Ken Moriyasu writing in Washington Examiner, the key to preventing Chinese aggression lies in identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities that connect directly to Beijing’s strategic nervous system, much like targeted intervention at distant points can alleviate pain elsewhere in the body.
These critical pressure points stretch across a vast geographic expanse, from Xinjiang through Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and into Eastern Europe. Each represents a potential lever that could substantially increase the costs Beijing would face in any Taiwan invasion scenario.
Chinese President Xi Jinping currently faces a primary constraint in the form of economic consequences. Any invasion attempt would likely trigger a U.S. Navy closure of the Strait of Malacca, devastating China’s economy. However, this deterrent effect diminishes if Beijing successfully secures alternative energy supplies and trade routes through overland pipelines and railways crossing Eurasia.
China is actively constructing this alternative infrastructure. Beyond the Northern Corridor running through Russia and the Middle Corridor traversing Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, Beijing is developing an additional railway route through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.
The ultimate test of China’s continental strategy may emerge where these corridors reach Europe. Thirteen countries situated between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black Seas have established the Three Seas Initiative, comprising Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
A decade ago, Beijing pursued influence in Central and Eastern Europe through its 17 plus 1 framework, offering investment and market access. That strategy collapsed after Beijing announced a no-limits partnership with Moscow and Russia invaded Ukraine. The Baltic states withdrew entirely, while Prague declared the initiative defunct. China has since shifted toward bilateral relationships with partners including Hungary and Serbia.
If the Western-oriented Three Seas Initiative members coordinate their efforts, they could effectively become the regulatory gateway controlling China’s overland commerce entering the European Union, creating a significant chokepoint for Beijing’s ambitions.
Armenia Emerges as Critical Pressure Point
In the South Caucasus, Armenia represents a newly emerging pressure point against China. If Yerevan amends constitutional language connected to historic territorial claims, it would eliminate the final obstacle to a comprehensive peace agreement with Azerbaijan, potentially accelerating construction of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity connecting the former adversaries through railways and pipelines.
A successful TRIPP could redirect portions of the Middle Corridor away from Georgia, which appears increasingly aligned with Russia, toward an American-led route through Azerbaijan and Armenia. This would give Washington and European partners greater influence over a corridor China increasingly regards as insurance against maritime disruption.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan secured reelection in June but failed to obtain the mandate necessary for unilateral constitutional amendment. This leaves the central peace process issue of ending territorial claims against Azerbaijan unresolved.
American Policy Changes Required
Serious American engagement with Beijing’s pressure points demands concrete policy shifts. The United States should repeal Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act of 1992 and certain Jackson-Vanik amendment provisions that continue restricting Azerbaijan.
The Middle Corridor spans more than 4,000 kilometers from China to Europe, bypassing both Russia and Iran. Western strategy should not aim to block China from using it entirely. Rather, the more Beijing relies on Eurasian landmass routes, the more geopolitical pressure points emerge. Dependence inherently creates vulnerabilities to regulatory barriers and regional instability.
Armenian constitutional reform, European engagement with Armenia, and changes to American trade law all function as interconnected elements building deterrence against China, despite occurring thousands of miles from Taiwan.
While no single measure would independently determine Xi’s decision-making on Taiwan, deterrence operates cumulatively. Each additional source of uncertainty and potential cost compounds the overall calculation, making military adventurism progressively less attractive to Beijing’s leadership.
With information from Washington Examiner
