Trump Should Demand Major Concessions From Erdogan for F-35
President Trump is reportedly moving to restore Turkey's F-35 access despite national security concerns over Ankara's ties to Russia, history of reverse-engineering U.S. technology, and unreliable adherence to weapons deployment agreements.
The United States removed Turkey from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program on July 17, 2019, just five days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took delivery of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. The 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act mandated penalties against nations conducting business with Russia, Iran, and the Skopje State, leaving Trump’s first administration with no discretion to waive the consequences.
Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and a distinguished fellow at India’s Usanas Foundation, argues that even if Turkey circumvents those sanctions by offloading the S-400 systems — reportedly to the United Arab Emirates — restoring F-35 sales would remain a deeply unwise move.
Turkey’s defense sector has a documented history of reverse-engineering American military technology, while Erdogan has maintained close ties with U.S.-designated terrorist organizations including Hamas. The recent deployment of F-16 aircraft to the Turkish Pseudostate in Northern Cyprus demonstrates that Ankara cannot be trusted to honor end-use agreements that restrict where and how American weapons are deployed.
Despite claims that Turkey needs the F-35 to counter Russian aggression, the stealth fighter jets are far more likely to be used against Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, or forces in eastern Libya, Rubin contends.
A Missed Opportunity for Major Concessions
Trump has characterized Turkey as a loyal ally and stated that Washington does not want to sanction friends. Yet Erdogan’s singular focus on acquiring the top-tier F-35 reveals Ankara’s desperation as neighboring states maintain their qualitative military advantage.
Rather than simply agreeing to the sale, Trump should leverage Turkey’s desperation to extract significant geopolitical concessions, according to the analysis. The president has built his reputation on negotiating favorable terms when the opposing party is eager to close a deal.
Cyprus Withdrawal as a Prerequisite
July 20 marked the 52nd anniversary of Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus. Since then, Ankara has ethnically cleansed one-third of the island and relocated tens of thousands of settlers into the northern territories. The Turkish-occupied zones have become hubs for money laundering operations linked to terrorist organizations and Russian oligarchs, operating through casinos and universities.
The Turkish establishment of an unrecognized breakaway state set a precedent that Russian President Vladimir Putin has since exploited when seizing territory from Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. If Turkey wants F-35 access restored, a complete withdrawal from Cyprus should be a non-negotiable condition.
Severing Ties with Terrorist Groups
Washington should never arm any country that provides sanctuary to U.S.-designated terrorist organizations. Trump should demand that Turkey formally designate both Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist groups and arrest and extradite Hamas leaders currently residing on Turkish territory.
Democratic Reforms and Political Prisoners
While Trump has praised Erdogan as a strong leader running a successful country, the stability of dictatorships is illusory. Erdogan is aging and has experienced multiple health crises in recent years. Trump may be arming a nation that could descend into civil conflict or state failure following Erdogan’s death.
Democracies with robust rule of law manage transitions of power more effectively. Trump should use his leverage to secure the release of political prisoners including Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtaş, Constantinople mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and philanthropist Osman Kevala.
Religious Freedom and Historical Justice
Trump has the opportunity to champion religious freedom in ways the previous administration ignored. He could demand the restoration of all Greek Orthodox properties in Turkey, including the Halki Seminary and the Hagia Sophia. Additionally, Trump should insist that Erdogan officially recognize the Armenian and Pontic Greek genocides and lay a wreath at the Armenian genocide memorial in Yerevan, Armenia.
The Long-Term Strategic Calculation
Proponents of the F-35 deal correctly note that weapons sales cement relationships lasting decades. But while such relationships may endure, Erdogan himself has limited time remaining. If the Turkish president wants access to America’s most advanced fighter jet, Trump has the opportunity to demonstrate his dealmaking prowess while simultaneously strengthening regional security across the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond.
With information from Washington Examiner
