Historic Collapse for Matteo Salvini’s Lega Party
Matteo Salvini's Lega faces a historic decline, slipping to 5.8%, as internal splits, leadership struggles, and lost Northern support risk reducing the party to a regional force.
Matteo Salvini’s Lega is experiencing a sharp decline. According to the latest Ipsos poll published in the “Corriere della Sera” on May 1, the party registers just 5.8%, its lowest percentage since its transformation into a national party.
The Futuro Nazionale of Roberto Venanzi, who left the Lega in February, now reaches 4.1%, siphoning votes from Lega’s traditional core.
This marks a historic turning point: from 34% in the 2019 European elections and 8.8% in the 2022 parliamentary elections, the party has lost millions of voters and risks becoming a “regional” player.
The main reason for the recent collapse is Venanzi’s departure. The general, with his book that sold hundreds of thousands of copies and his hardline positions on immigration, gender, and “Italian identity,” embodied the most radical segment of the base.
His departure was no coincidence: Venanzi accused the Lega of backing down from its positions on Ukraine and demilitarization up to the refusal to repeal the Fornero law on pensions.
His new party attracts voters who believe that Salvini “softened” within the Meloni government.
However, the decline has deeper roots. Since 2022, the Lega has been the junior partner in a government dominated by Fratelli d’Italia, polling at 26%-29%.
Successes on immigration and the economy are attributed to Meloni, while Salvini, as Minister of Infrastructure, faces constant criticism for train delays and slow progress on the Ponte sullo Stretto project.
At the same time, the party has lost its identity as the “Northern” protest movement: it has lost regions such as Sardinia and Umbria.
Moreover, the Lega paid the price for its “nationalization,” the expansion throughout the country attempted by Salvini: it lost votes in the North without gaining a stable base in the South.
Internal tensions, involving Luca Zaia and local leaders, reinforce the image of a party in a leadership crisis. Today, the Lega is the sixth force, even trailing the Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra in some polls.
The decline is not only numerical. It is the collapse of a model based on Salvini as the “people’s general.” Without a radical strategic renewal and without breaking free from Meloni’s shadow, the Lega risks becoming a historical imprint of an era that has ended.
First published on Manifesto.gr
