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China Risks Severe Consequences Over Taiwan Strait Attack

A military conflict in the Taiwan Strait would force China to reroute critical trade flows overland at enormous financial cost, according to new research on Beijing's maritime vulnerabilities.

Eleni Papadaki-Van Der Merwe Staff Writer

JULY 7, 2026 AT 12:07 AM

The analysis, published last Wednesday under the title “Troubled Straits: Analyzing Trade Chokepoints in the South China Sea,” reveals the strategic fragility of Chinese supply chains that currently depend on open sea lanes through the contested waterway, as The European Conservative reports.

Should hostilities erupt and block normal maritime traffic through the Taiwan Strait, the People’s Republic would be compelled to shift certain categories of goods to land-based transportation routes. This logistical pivot would impose severe economic penalties on Chinese trade operations and supply chain efficiency.

The findings underscore the economic dimension of any potential military confrontation over Taiwan, highlighting how geography and existing infrastructure create inherent limitations on Beijing’s ability to sustain trade flows during a crisis. The Taiwan Strait serves as a critical artery for commercial shipping in East Asia, and its closure would reverberate throughout global supply chains while disproportionately impacting Chinese economic interests.

The report arrives amid heightened tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan’s status, with Western military analysts increasingly focused on the practical consequences of various conflict scenarios in the Indo-Pacific theater.

With information from The European Conservative

Eleni Papadaki-Van Der Merwe

She was born in 1986 in Johannesburg, South Africa. She is the granddaughter of an immigrant from Crete who settled in the Greek community of Johannesburg (one of the largest in Africa). She holds a bachelor’s degree in International Relations and Political Science from the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) in Johannesburg and a master’s degree in Journalism from Rhodes University in Grahamstown. She began her career at English-language media outlets in Johannesburg, covering politics and economics, with a focus on issues related to migration and the diaspora. She moved to Athens in 2015 to “return to her roots,” initially to pursue graduate studies, and has remained there permanently. She is married to an Afrikaner; they have two children and live in the southern suburbs of Athens.