Armenia at a Crossroads: June Elections Decide Moscow or Brussels

Sources from senior levels of the Armenian government indicate that Yerevan is ready to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan at any time. Such an agreement could help stabilize the country and facilitate the arrival of significant assistance packages from the EU aimed at reducing Armenia’s dependence on Russian influence.

However, according to the same sources, Baku continues to impose additional conditions that delay the completion of the agreement. A critical political turning point will be the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7. These elections are expected to determine whether Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his West-oriented geopolitical strategy will remain in power. A victory for the opposition could overturn Armenia’s current trajectory and bring it closer to Russia.

Conversely, a win for Pashinyan would give him a strong popular mandate to meet Azerbaijan’s remaining demands. This could pave the way for the signing of a peace agreement and accelerate Armenia’s geopolitical shift toward the European Union.

For Azerbaijan, the main demands focus on legal guarantees to ensure that no future Armenian government can revoke the peace agreement. The most sensitive issue remains Nagorno-Karabakh, which came fully under Azerbaijani control in 2023 after decades of conflict.

Although Pashinyan has already recognized Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh as part of the peace process, Baku continues to insist on constitutional changes in Armenia. Azerbaijani officials cite the 1990 Declaration of Independence, which refers to the unification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh as a historic political goal, arguing that it could serve as a legal basis for future territorial claims.

The EU supports the peace process, following a dual strategy: strengthening relations with Armenia to gradually distance it from Russian influence while maintaining strategic relations with Azerbaijan, which has become a major energy supplier to Europe after the reduction of Russian imports.

This balanced approach was evident during the visit of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, to Baku on April 16, 2025, where she met with President Ilham Aliyev. Kallas described Azerbaijan as an “important energy partner” of the EU, while also emphasizing the importance of progress in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.

The signing of a peace agreement between the EU’s two main interlocutors in the South Caucasus would significantly facilitate Brussels’ broader regional coordination efforts and strengthen its strategy to reduce Russian influence in the region.

At the same time, the EU has significantly increased its political presence in Armenia. Recent high-level diplomatic visits to Yerevan are widely interpreted as support for the government’s West-oriented course.

In the economic sector, the EU’s engagement has expanded through a combined offer of grants, loans, and investment guarantees amounting to several billion euros. A central element of this strategy is the Resilience and Development Agenda, which targets economic diversification, infrastructure development, and institutional reforms to reduce Armenia’s dependence on Russian markets and supply chains.

The EU has also increased funding for democratic resilience and civil society through instruments such as the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights. These initiatives support media organizations, rule-of-law programs, and anti-corruption efforts aimed at strengthening institutional resilience and countering pro-Russian propaganda narratives in the domestic information space, while fostering a political and informational environment more aligned with EU policy preferences.

Security has also been improved with measures including non-lethal support and training programs. These moves reflect a broader effort to reduce Armenia’s structural dependence on Russia without direct military involvement.

Overall, these initiatives demonstrate a gradual but consistent EU strategy: to economically and institutionally integrate Armenia within the European sphere, while simultaneously supporting its geopolitical shift away from Moscow.

Despite Armenia’s increasing political alignment with the West, its economic ties with Russia remain extremely strong. Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading partner, a significant energy supplier, and the main source of remittances. Bilateral trade has increased notably since 2022, partly because Armenia has become an important re-export hub for goods entering Russia after Western sanctions.

These structural economic links underscore why Yerevan’s shift away from Moscow is likely to be gradual rather than sudden. Nevertheless, the path remains politically fragile. The outcome of the June elections will be crucial in determining whether Armenia’s pivot to the West consolidates or is partially reversed, potentially returning the country to Russia’s sphere of influence.