AfD surpasses CDU/CSU in voter potential according to Insa poll
The Alternative for Germany has reached a historic 35 percent maximum voter potential, surpassing both the CDU and SPD for the first time, according to new Insa polling data.
The Insa opinion research institute announced on Tuesday that the party led by Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla now commands the highest theoretical support ceiling among German voters, as Junge Freiheit reports. The CDU and CSU together, as well as the SPD separately, each reached a voter potential of 33 percent in the same survey.
The findings mark a significant shift in German political dynamics, with the AfD demonstrating broader appeal than the traditional governing parties for the first time in its history. The Green Party follows with 28.5 percent of voters not ruling out support for them, while the Left Party could potentially reach 22.5 percent. The FDP registered a voter potential of 16.5 percent, and the BSW reached 15.5 percent.
Divergent Polling on Criminal Code Reform
The Insa survey produced strikingly different results from a recent Forsa poll regarding Paragraph 188 of the German criminal code. While the Forsa survey for RTL and Stern found that 58 percent of Germans wanted to retain the law, Insa found a relative majority favoring its abolition.
Paragraph 188 provides enhanced criminal penalties for insult, defamation, and slander against persons in political life when such acts are likely to significantly impede their public work. According to the Insa institute, 43 percent of citizens support abolishing this provision, compared to 32 percent who believe it should remain in place.
Support for abolition runs strongest among FDP voters at 67 percent, followed closely by AfD supporters at 64 percent. Union voters proved most resistant to change, with only a minority favoring abolition while 55 percent support keeping the law intact.
AfD Shows Strongest Voter Growth
Historical voting patterns reveal that 37 percent of voters have cast ballots for the Union at least once in the past, while the SPD has been chosen by 36 percent of Germans. The Greens have received votes from 23 percent of the electorate, the AfD from 20 percent, and both the FDP and Left Party from 14 percent each. These figures suggest the AfD has achieved remarkable growth despite its shorter political history compared to established parties.
Mixed Views on Electoral Threshold
The survey also examined attitudes toward Germany’s five percent electoral threshold. Nearly half of Germans, at 47 percent, oppose eliminating the barrier at either the federal or state level. However, 18 percent support abolishing it for both Bundestag and state parliament elections.
Seven percent favor removing the threshold only at the federal level, while ten percent believe it should be eliminated only for state elections. BSW voters showed the strongest support for complete abolition, with 32 percent favoring removal at both levels and only 35 percent wanting to maintain the current system.
Green Party voters demonstrated the firmest support for maintaining the threshold, with 61 percent opposing any changes. Just 15 percent of Green supporters favor eliminating the barrier at both federal and state levels, making them the least likely to support comprehensive reform.
With information from Junge Freiheit
