Rafael Kalyviotis: Anti-Trump Hysteria and the Reality

Anti-Trump hysteria is the result of an organized structure of systemic media and business interests that have been hurt by the attempted deglobalization, as well as hybrid operations spreading narratives that, through the Epstein scandal, Netanyahu is holding Trump and that he is his puppet.

The latest conspiracy theories avoid mentioning that it was Trump who actually gave the public the files.

The same trajectory of political and geopolitical thought somehow seeks to silence the fact that the mullah regime is not synonymous with the proud Iranian people, who have themselves been killed by the regime in the tens of thousands. And that is also the real reason they do not revolt. They have not allied with the regime. They simply fear it.

The new trend among international relations experts is labeling Trump as TACO (“Trump Always Chickens Out”). Is Trump ultimately fearful, or is he a bloodthirsty madman? They have to decide. Is he Chamberlain or Hitler?

Now let’s come back down to reality.

Trump is neither Mad King nor Joffrey from Game of Thrones.

However, he uses Nixon’s Mad Man Theory. Nixon’s unpredictable decisiveness once included elements of bluff and escalation, such as threats of nuclear use, but also negotiation tactics, making the Soviet Union far more cautious.

Iran (and its allies) saw the change of Chief of Staff (Gen. Randy George) and other top generals as a sign that American leadership is determined to move more aggressively. The message to China and Russia was clear: Trump is willing to replace generals to achieve his goals, increasing the unpredictability of U.S. behavior.

Let’s look at the results of the war in Iran so far:

1. Its leadership has been systematically neutralized, including the Supreme Leader and senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as scientists running the nuclear program. The successor to Khamenei is like Schrödinger’s cat in a closet—we can simultaneously assume he is both alive and dead until we open it.

2. Its air force, navy, and air defense systems have been destroyed. About 90% of Iran’s weapons factories have been hit; ballistic missile stockpiles and 450 production facilities lie in ruins, along with approximately 800 drone installations.

3. Its proxies, especially Hamas and Hezbollah, are at their worst point since their founding, while the Houthis are weakened. For us, the genocidal Golan regime in Syria is atrocious. But for the U.S. and Israel, it blocks the communication and supply corridor from Iran to Hezbollah.

4. Its nuclear arsenal has suffered severe blows.

5. Iran’s military industry, steel production, and petrochemical plants—the economic arteries of the regime—have been seriously damaged, with no possibility of recovery in the near future.

6. The Strait of Hormuz is still controlled by Iran. Important? Certainly! It also causes inflationary problems in the U.S. But this is only half the truth. The other half is that China is resuming large-scale purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil from the United States, as disruptions in Middle East supply and fuel shortages across Asia force Beijing to readjust its energy strategy. At this level, China shows less resilience compared to the U.S. In due course, Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet. All issues will be on the table then.

And here we arrive at a fundamental point of analysis. Is the real conflict between the U.S. and Iran? No! The true conflict is between systemic actors, the U.S. and China, with Iran as a sub-systemic actor. Iran is part of the terminus of the Silk Road, which attempts to bypass the maritime route ending in the Aegean and thus overturn classic Anglo-Saxon control of the seas. This is why China advised Iran to consider a ceasefire.

7. A complete regime overthrow is difficult because of Iran’s bifurcated system that does not operate as a unified military force. The Artesh—the conventional armed forces, decentralized around five regional commands—effectively obey the Revolutionary Guards, who themselves, also decentralized, obey the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, who in turn answers to the Supreme Leader. However, following the war, with an economy in ruins, directing resources toward military rebuilding rather than the real economy, which has long been burdened by U.S. sanctions, will make the consequences unpredictable. The conditions, however, have been set.

8. The Gulf states that suffered Iranian attacks have learned a lesson they will hardly forget. Unlike Israel, which is accustomed to cycles of conflict every year or two, younger generations of Emiratis, Qataris, and Saudis will carry for a long time the trauma of running for shelter in unfortified places, while tourism, economic stability, and energy flows turned to ashes. For the Gulf states—especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—Iranian raids shattered the main pillar of a decade-long “hedging” strategy.

For years, Riyadh and some neighboring states followed a deliberate dual dependency line: security and military support issues remained almost exclusively oriented toward the U.S. (at about a 9-to-1 ratio in favor of American advanced weapons supplies), while simultaneously they increasingly strengthened economic and infrastructure ties with Beijing.

The Saudi-Iranian normalization of 2023, mediated by China, was the most characteristic manifestation of this strategy: a carefully planned bet that a diplomatic approach would secure immunity against Iranian aggression. However, missile attacks completely overturned that bet.

If this is defeat, I don’t know what victory means.