Historian Rödder warns of civil war from the left in Saxony-Anhalt

Andreas Rödder, former chairman of the Christian Democratic Union’s Basic Values Commission, told German media that civil unrest is being incited from the left side of the political spectrum, according to Junge Freiheit. His comments come as law enforcement authorities prepare for possible disturbances on election night, scheduled for September 6.

Rödder emphasized his longstanding position as a historian against premature historical comparisons, noting that 2026 is not 1932. However, he acknowledged that one of his key arguments against such comparisons—the absence of street battles and comparable violent outbursts in public spaces—is beginning to lose its persuasive power given current developments.

The historian expressed particular concern about which side is initiating the violence. The political left, which claims to be defending democracy, is now behaving not only in an authoritarian manner but increasingly resorting to violence, Rödder warned. Germany must be vigilant that self-appointed defenders of liberal democracy do not become violent actors themselves.

AfD Polling at 42 Percent as CDU Collapses

Beyond potential street violence, Rödder described the post-election political situation as highly explosive. The latest ARD polling shows the Alternative for Germany at 42 percent support, while the Christian Democratic Union has plummeted to 22 percent. Whether the AfD secures an absolute majority of seats will largely depend on how many votes go to parties that fail to clear the five percent electoral threshold.

Should the AfD fall short of an absolute majority either alone or in combination with the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, Rödder outlined three equally difficult scenarios facing the Christian Democrats. The first option would involve maintaining the party’s incompatibility resolutions against both the AfD and the Left Party, effectively refusing to participate in government formation.

If this path were chosen and the election of a minister-president with an absolute majority subsequently failed, the state parliament could dissolve itself. Otherwise, under procedures prescribed in the state constitution, a further round of voting would occur in which a simple plurality suffices. In that scenario, Rödder assessed, AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund would likely be elected minister-president.

All-Party Coalition Against AfD Would Require Breaking Firewall

The historian identified a second possibility as an all-party coalition against the AfD. This would require the Christian Democratic Union to either break or severely bend its incompatibility resolution regarding the Left Party. Such a move would accelerate the migration of CDU voters to the right, Rödder predicted. He also expressed doubt that the Saxony-Anhalt state CDU would support such an alliance in a unified manner.

The third option would be a CDU-led minority government that seeks changing majorities for its initiatives, including accepting votes from the AfD when necessary. Nico Elsner, chairman of the Young Union in Saxony-Anhalt, has advocated for this model, as Junge Freiheit previously reported. Rödder expects major upheaval within the CDU should this path be taken, given that party leadership has positioned itself so firmly against any cooperation with the AfD that reversing course would inflict significant damage.

Cooperation With Left Party Would Be Cultural Break

Reaching an understanding with the Left Party would not be a minor pragmatic step either, according to the historian. The parties are particularly far apart in both content and political culture. Conditions laid out by Left Party parliamentary group leader Heidi Reichinnek make clear that such cooperation would represent a genuine cultural break for the CDU.

Rödder stated he cannot yet discern a convincing answer from party leadership to this dilemma. The strategy he has advocated for years—replacing the rigid firewall with clear red lines and more flexible parliamentary engagement—has not gained traction with the CDU leadership. If the Union maintains everything it has proclaimed thus far after the election, it remains completely unclear how the party intends to extricate itself from this self-created predicament.

Police preparations for election night reflect concerns about potential violence, as authorities brace for what could be a volatile atmosphere surrounding the vote count and results announcement.

With information from Junge Freiheit