The Realistic Shift of European Center-Right Parties
The European People's Party’s shift rightward in backing stricter migration rules signals a lasting political realignment, challenging centrist alliances and reshaping Europe's future power dynamics.
The realistic shift of the European center-right.
On March 26, the European Parliament voted 389 in favor, 206 against, and 32 abstentions on its position regarding the new Return Regulation.
The text provides for faster deportations of illegal immigrants, the creation of “return centers” in third countries, detention extended up to 24 months, broader definitions of “security risk,” and asset confiscation.
This is the final piece of the Migration and Asylum Pact to take effect from 2026, aiming to increase return rates which currently remain below 20%.
However, the most interesting aspect was not the content but the political alliance that imposed it. The European People’s Party (EPP) abandoned the traditional “centrist alliance” with the Socialists and Renew Europe and aligned itself with the right-wing groups ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists), Patriots for Europe (PfE), and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN).
This collaboration was no coincidence: after failed negotiations with the Socialists, the EPP chose to build a majority on its right, legitimizing positions that a few years ago many considered extreme.
This vote reflects the beginning of a profound change in the European Parliament. The EPP, the largest political group, is steadily moving to the right on the crucial issue of migration, responding to the concerns of European citizens who, according to all polls, rank migration at the top of their priorities.
The Socialists and the Greens spoke of “betrayal” and “legitimizing the far right,” but the reality is more complex: the traditional “grand coalition” of the center has fractured.
The implications for the 2029 European elections could be decisive. If this right-wing cooperation is consolidated, the EPP will be able to claim the presidency of the Commission without needing the Left, while the Socialists and Liberals will find themselves at a disadvantage.
National right-wing and center-right parties will be strengthened, as they will be able to present “European victories” on migration issues.
Conversely, the Left and the Greens risk further marginalization. 2029 may bring not only a numerical change but also a new political map: a more conservative, tougher Europe, where the right-wing majority is no longer exceptional but structural.
The March 26 vote was not merely a legislative success. It was the first clear signal that power dynamics are changing radically. Provided the EPP withstands the pressures that will surely come.
