Migrants Behind 45% of European Jihadi Terror Plots
Nearly half of Europe's jihadi terror plots from 2015 to 2025 involved migrant plotters, with Germany the most targeted nation, according to a Budapest think tank study.
The report, published in May 2026 by the Danube Institute, a conservative think tank based in Budapest, analyzed 221 jihadi plots recorded between May 2015 and May 2025, according to Brussels Signal. Of these, 100 involved at least one migrant plotter, representing 45 per cent of all cases examined.
Simon Cottee, the criminologist who authored the study, identified 137 individual migrant plotters in total. For the purposes of the research, a migrant plotter was defined as anyone born outside Europe who spent their childhood in a non-European country, regardless of their legal status or duration of residence on the continent.
The overwhelming majority of the plots were inspired by Islamic State (ISIS), and plotters originated from more than 20 countries. Syria, Iraq and Morocco were the most common countries of origin, with almost all plotters being men in their twenties and thirties.
Death Toll Heavily Concentrated in Two Major Attacks
Plots involving at least one migrant resulted in 279 deaths, compared to 107 deaths in plots without migrant involvement. However, Cottee noted that two attacks—the November 2015 Paris attacks and the 2016 Nice lorry-ramming attack—accounted for 216 of those fatalities.
Germany emerged as the most frequent target, with nearly half of all migrant-related plots occurring on German soil. France recorded 21 such plots, while the United Kingdom saw 10.
In a striking contrast, Hungary—which closed its borders during the 2015 migration crisis—recorded almost no jihadi activity. The European Court of Justice has since fined Hungary €200 million for breaching EU asylum rules.
Recent Shift Toward Jewish and Israeli Targets
The report identifies a concerning trend in more recent cases, particularly in Germany, where plots have increasingly targeted Jewish and Israeli sites. Cottee links this shift to the Israel-Hamas war that began in October 2023.
The Danube Institute has close ties to former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who lost power in the April 2026 election. The report has not undergone peer review, and Cottee acknowledges that his classification of cases relies on his own interpretation of open sources.
Challenge to ‘Homegrown’ Terrorism Narrative
The findings stand in sharp contrast to a 2025 study by Thomas Renard and Méryl Demuynck for the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), which concluded that terrorism in Europe remained largely a domestic problem and that concerns about refugee terrorism were exaggerated.
Cottee found that 79 per cent of migrant plotters were “self-starters” who developed their ISIS sympathies only after arriving in Europe. Nearly half held asylum or residency status at the time of their plot.
Critics point to such patterns as evidence that radicalization occurs on European soil. However, Cottee argues that these migrants did not arrive as blank slates, and that their subsequent radicalization does not negate the security risks posed by mass migration.
The criminologist describes a “fourth wave” of jihadism linked to mass migration, and concludes that Orbán was justified in warning that the 2015 migration crisis would threaten European security.
With information from Brussels Signal
