{"id":271,"date":"2026-02-13T23:14:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T21:14:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/?p=271"},"modified":"2026-05-17T02:14:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T23:14:24","slug":"die-welt-simulates-russia-nato-war-that-could-become-real-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/die-welt-simulates-russia-nato-war-that-could-become-real-soon\/","title":{"rendered":"Die Welt Simulates Russia-NATO War That Could Become Real Soon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>The newspaper Die Welt conducted a war simulation, and Bild reported that &#8220;Putin could defeat NATO with 15,000 soldiers.&#8221; However, the significant aspect of the war game was something entirely different.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: square;\">\n<li>Written by <strong>Thomas R\u00f6per<\/strong> from <strong>ANTI-SPIEGEL<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The newspaper <em>Die Welt<\/em> recently published a report on a war exercise it organized, simulating a Russian attack on a NATO country and NATO&#8217;s response. The article begins as follows:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>What would happen if Russia attacked us? In a war game, WELT simulated a worst-case scenario with former decision-makers and military personnel, politicians, and experts. The scenario is fictional but not unlikely. It helps us understand where our weaknesses lie\u2014and to address them.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Simulation<\/h2>\n<p>The publishing house <strong>Springer<\/strong>, which owns <em>Die Welt<\/em>, is currently making a big fuss about the war game. In addition to detailed reports in <em>Die Welt<\/em> itself, <em>Politico<\/em>\u2014also owned by Springer\u2014published a very lengthy article titled <em><strong>&#8220;We simulated a Russian attack on NATO in a war game. Here&#8217;s what happened next.&#8221;<\/strong><\/em> And naturally, the tabloid newspaper <em>Bild<\/em> from Springer could not be left out, reporting it under the headline <em><strong>&#8220;Shock scenario! Putin could defeat NATO with 15,000 soldiers.&#8221;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Such war games are not unusual and are part of the military&#8217;s daily work. They would not be doing their job if they did not simulate potential war scenarios. The fact that such war games exist is therefore not newsworthy. So why am I writing about this?<\/p>\n<p>The reason is that <strong>the war game demonstrates why I continuously speak about the increasing threat of war<\/strong>. Whether the outcome of the war game, in which the Russian army overwhelms NATO, is realistic is another matter. What is very realistic in this war game, however, is the cause of the war\u2014and that is where I want to focus here.<\/p>\n<p>Bild summarizes the starting point of the scenario as follows:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>The scenario included a ceasefire in the summer of 2026, giving Russia several months to replenish, retrain, and redeploy its troops. While the ceasefire in Ukraine was fragile, Russia no longer needed all its forces at the front. Another element of the scenario: the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin fabricated a pretext\u2014a humanitarian crisis in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. To create an alleged humanitarian corridor, Russian troops invaded Lithuania and occupied the strategically important city of Marijampol\u0117.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This concerns the blockade of Kaliningrad by NATO states and the subsequent Russian reaction.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Very Realistic Reason for War<\/h2>\n<p>Putting aside the propaganda claims that the <strong>&#8220;Kremlin dictator&#8221;<\/strong> is fabricating a pretext, let&#8217;s focus on the core issue: a potential <strong>blockade of Kaliningrad<\/strong> and the <strong>possible Russian responses<\/strong>. The first question that arises is whether a blockade of Kaliningrad is indeed expected.<\/p>\n<p>This is not very well known in Germany, but the answer is: <strong>Yes, such a scenario is actually very current and realistic.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kaliningrad is a Russian enclave, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, several agreements regulated the transit of goods and people between mainland Russia and Kaliningrad via Lithuanian territory. The <strong>first agreement<\/strong> was concluded between <strong>Russia<\/strong> and <strong>Lithuania<\/strong> in <strong>1994<\/strong>. After Lithuania joined the EU, the agreement had to be updated accordingly, and <strong>Russia and the EU issued joint declarations of commitment<\/strong> in <strong>2002<\/strong> and <strong>2004<\/strong>. This essentially transformed the original transit agreement between Lithuania and Russia into a <strong>treaty between the EU and Russia<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>This transit is, of course, vital for Kaliningrad because it receives everything it needs from Russia\u2014from food to fuel, goods, and so forth.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Since the <strong>escalation in Ukraine<\/strong>, <strong>Lithuania<\/strong> has been massively provoking <strong>Belarus<\/strong> by repeatedly closing border crossings with the country under various pretexts and threatening to close border crossings with Russia as well. Last autumn, for example, Lithuania complained that <strong>cigarette smugglers allegedly sent their contraband from Belarus to Lithuania using hot air balloons<\/strong> and even used this as justification to close the airport in the capital, <strong>Vilnius<\/strong>, on several occasions. This culminated with Lithuanian President <strong>Gitanas Naus\u0117da<\/strong> proposing on October 26, 2025, to limit transit to Kaliningrad and to definitively close the borders with Belarus.<\/p>\n<p>The following day, at a press conference in Brussels, a Lithuanian journalist <strong>asked<\/strong> the European Commission spokesperson whether <strong>Lithuania could unilaterally stop the transit to Kaliningrad, which is regulated by agreements between Russia and the EU<\/strong>. The <strong>EU spokesperson<\/strong> <span>replied<\/span> that <strong>she could not answer this question at this time<\/strong>. Instead, she pointed out that issues regarding violations of Lithuanian airspace by meteorological balloons from Belarus fall under the jurisdiction of Lithuanian authorities.<\/p>\n<p>This is certainly true, but the question remains <strong>what incidents in the airspace have to do with the closing of border crossings on the ground<\/strong>. In any case, the EU spokesperson thus avoided the question of whether <strong>the EU believes Lithuania can interrupt transit from Kaliningrad<\/strong>, even though <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>the EU is a contractual partner of Russia on this matter<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>On October 28, one day later, the Lithuanian <strong>Foreign Ministry stated<\/strong> that it <strong>retains the right to block transit through Kaliningrad<\/strong> because <strong><em>\u201cno one\u201d<\/em> could <em>\u201crestrict Lithuania in its actions in the interest of national security, defense against threats, protection of citizens, sovereignty, and territorial integrity\u201d<\/em><\/strong>, the statement said.<\/p>\n<p>Subsequently, there were repeated reports that the EU was discussing an <strong>almost complete closure of road and rail traffic between Russia and Kaliningrad by Lithuania<\/strong> as part of new sanctions packages. Officially, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>the ban is supposed to apply only to dual-use goods<\/strong><\/span>, but in reality, this term is stretched to <strong>absurd lengths<\/strong>: these goods include vehicles, equipment, and a wide range of electronics, chemicals, metal products\u2014practically everything people in that region might need for daily life.<\/p>\n<p>This would constitute a <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>de facto blockade of Kaliningrad<\/strong><\/span>, which according to all rules of international law would be an immediate <strong>casus belli<\/strong>, i.e., a cause for military response by Russia.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Role of the Media<\/h2>\n<p>The war game conducted by <em>Die Welt<\/em> at the <strong>Bundeswehr University<\/strong> in Hamburg (possibly in coordination with them) is based on the <strong>scenario<\/strong> that <strong>Russia intends to break the blockade of Kaliningrad<\/strong>. The <strong>simulation<\/strong>, of course, claims that <strong>all this is Russian propaganda<\/strong> and merely a <strong>pretext<\/strong> for <strong>a war against NATO<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>And <strong>this is exactly what Western media<\/strong>, politicians, and military officials would claim if Russia responded militarily to a real blockade of Kaliningrad by Lithuania and\/or the EU.<\/p>\n<p>The fact that this <strong>extremely dangerous scenario<\/strong> was already actually discussed in <strong>October 2025<\/strong> and <strong>threatened by Lithuania<\/strong>\u2014without protests from Brussels\u2014demonstrates how realistic and dangerous such a scenario is. And it is yet another indication that <strong>German media did not consider it necessary to report it<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>If Lithuania and\/or the EU decide to implement this, and if Russia responds militarily, then it is clear what the German public media and politicians would say: <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>The aggressive Russia attacks an innocent, small neighboring country completely unprovoked<\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>One could almost interpret the war game in <em>Die Welt<\/em> and the noise surrounding it in all Springer media as a kind of <strong>preparation of the public for this scenario<\/strong>. It is all as follows: <strong>We told you, the evil Russia attacks Lithuania unprovoked!<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How Would the Conflict Unfold?<\/h2>\n<p>In this war game, the conflict ends with a swift Russian victory because the USA, NATO, and Germany fail to react militarily in time. Therefore, in this scenario, <strong>Russia is able to quickly create a corridor to Kaliningrad with relatively few forces<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><em>Bild<\/em> summarizes it as follows:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>The USA do not immediately classify the action as a clear case for NATO&#8217;s collective defense clause. Germany hesitates as well. Poland mobilizes its armed forces but does not intervene militarily. Russian drones and mines block key transport routes, preventing NATO troops from intervening on site. The result: With just a few thousand soldiers, Russia has rendered NATO incapable of action and has seized part of the Baltic countries. (&#8230;) In the scenario, the Americans do not declare themselves ready to intervene militarily and defend NATO territory with their forces within the first 48 hours. This leaves the pressure to provide aid to the Baltic states solely on Europe. In the simulation, neither Germany nor Poland decides to provide military support to Lithuania, a NATO and EU member.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Regardless of whether this would be a realistic development, it is unsurprising that <strong>a simulation organized by Springer and the Bundeswehr University arrives at this conclusion, as the outcome is intended to influence both public opinion and political decision-makers<\/strong>. After all, the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>desired narrative<\/strong><\/span> in the German media is that the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>&#8220;Russian threat&#8221;<\/strong><\/span> is real and therefore <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>we must spend a lot of money on armaments<\/strong><\/span>. A simulation in which NATO easily repels a Russian attack would be counterproductive.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is This Realistic?<\/h2>\n<p>However, <strong>this development would in no way be unrealistic<\/strong>. If Lithuania and\/or the EU actually block Kaliningrad, all NATO governments would of course know. Everyone would know that <strong>a Russian attack is being provoked and that Lithuania and\/or the EU had committed an act of war by blocking Kaliningrad<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This would mean that\u2014at least under international law\u2014<strong>Article 5 of the NATO Treaty would not apply<\/strong>, as it does not cover collective defense if a NATO member first attacks another country. And this would apply <strong>de jure<\/strong> in this case. And whether NATO states would allow themselves to get involved in a war with Russia because of the ambitions of a small Baltic state is highly questionable.<\/p>\n<p>The USA certainly would not do this. The Europeans would almost certainly be on their own. Therefore, <strong>the scenario in the war game is not entirely unrealistic, as it is doubtful that Europeans would go to war with Russia without the USA on their side<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>However, there is a critical point to consider: <strong>all EU and NATO governments would witness the preparation of the blockade. Therefore, they would not be surprised by Russia&#8217;s reaction<\/strong>, as the simulation suggests. And, of course, they would give a behind-the-scenes signal whether they would support Lithuania against Russia or whether Lithuania would be better off refraining from this provocation.<\/p>\n<p>Everyone knew, of course, that <strong>NATO would be effectively dead if they did not help Lithuania<\/strong>. But many would probably prefer a dead NATO over participating in a war against Russia caused by Lithuania.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Empty Promises?<\/h2>\n<p>It is also possible, however, that <strong>NATO (and even the USA) promise Lithuania support behind the scenes<\/strong>, leading Lithuania to risk a blockade of Kaliningrad relying on its allies, only for them to abandon it afterward. This sounds <strong>unrealistic<\/strong> to many, but there are <strong>two recent examples<\/strong> of such an approach from NATO and the USA.<\/p>\n<p>In <strong>2008<\/strong>, US President <strong>Bush<\/strong> also promised Georgian President <strong>Saakashvili<\/strong> US support, which is why Saakashvili <span>attacked<\/span> South Ossetia and Russian peacekeeping forces there, risking war with Russia. When Russia then intervened, there was no sign of the promised US support.<\/p>\n<p>But the <strong>USA<\/strong> had achieved their goal and won a <strong>propaganda victory<\/strong> because they could tell the Western public the fairy tale that <strong>evil Russia had attacked its small neighbor Georgia completely unprovoked<\/strong>. Western politicians and media still repeat this fairy tale about the 2008 Caucasus war to this day.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zelensky<\/strong> also fell victim to this trick in <strong>2022<\/strong>, because then <strong>NATO also promised Ukraine military support behind the scenes if it provoked war against Russia<\/strong>. After all, thousands of NATO soldiers were in Ukraine as &#8220;trainers&#8221; at that time. When Russia reacted, NATO soldiers hastily left Ukraine, and <span><strong>in early March 2022<\/strong>,<\/span> <strong>Zelensky<\/strong> and Foreign Minister <strong>Kuleba<\/strong> were heard desperately complaining that <strong>NATO and its promises were not worth the paper they were written on<\/strong>. For example, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister stated on <strong>March 5, 2022<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>I want to make it clear that there is a political agreement within NATO that its allies are supposed to help Ukraine bilaterally in every possible way. But the alliance itself, as an organization, has essentially self-abolished. We have to be honest about this. Ukrainians have to recognize clearly and honestly that NATO is not really what they imagine it to be, at least not now. If they change their mind tomorrow, fine. But so far, their position inspires no respect.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Then, the <strong>USA<\/strong>, <strong>NATO<\/strong>, and the <strong>EU<\/strong> also achieved their <strong>goal:<\/strong> to lead Russia into a proxy war and then crush it with economic sanctions. As we know, the latter did not work, but that was unknown at the time. Instead, they believed in a quick victory over the supposedly shattered Russian army and the supposedly weak Russian economy.<\/p>\n<p>Theoretically, it would therefore be possible that <strong>the goal now is for Lithuania to repeat the mistakes made by Georgia and Ukraine<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>However, I consider this unlikely because the USA, NATO, and the EU would have nothing to gain from this, as <strong>NATO would be politically finished if it did not support Lithuania<\/strong>. And since <strong>the attempt to internationally isolate Russia as the alleged aggressor after the escalation in Ukraine has failed<\/strong>, no one in Washington or Brussels is likely to believe this could succeed after a provoked escalation over Kaliningrad.<\/p>\n<p>While the <strong>USA<\/strong> under <strong>Trump<\/strong> no longer place much value on NATO, it is unlikely they would toss it so carelessly into the dustbin of history without gaining anything from it.<\/p>\n<p>Only <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>the EU leadership<\/strong><\/span> could have a legal interest in such a development, because due to increasingly <strong>stringent censorship within the EU<\/strong>, such an event could strengthen <strong>the desired narrative of an aggressive Russia<\/strong> and thus serve as a <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>justification for the forthcoming severe cuts to social welfare systems that result from the sanctions against Russia and the accumulation of weapons<\/strong><\/span>. This strict censorship would suppress critical voices pointing to the real origin of the conflict, just as it suppresses voices dealing with the origin of the war in Ukraine. I do not want to imply that the EU would want to cause such a scenario because it would otherwise have little to gain and much to lose.<\/p>\n<p>I only wanted to point out that <strong>it would not be the first time that the USA, NATO, and the EU, together or individually, led other countries into pointless and unwinnable wars with false promises of help to their own advantage<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><em>Source: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/anti-spiegel.ru\/2026\/die-welt-inszeniert-ein-planspiel-das-allzu-schnell-realitaet-werden-kann\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ANTI-SPIEGEL<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A simulated conflict highlights the escalating risk triggered by a plausible Kaliningrad blockade, exposing NATO\u2019s fragile collective defense and the geopolitical stakes of Baltic tensions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":272,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[122],"tags":[226,224,225,223,211,222,139],"nfg_topic":[134],"class_list":["post-271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-die-welt","tag-kaliningrad","tag-lithuania","tag-nato","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-war-in-ukraine","nfg_topic-europe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=271"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":273,"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271\/revisions\/273"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=271"},{"taxonomy":"nfg_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/newsfire.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/nfg_topic?post=271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}